石破茂是日本自民党内资深政治家，长期关注国家安全与经济政策。近年来，随着中日关系的复杂化以及全球供应链重组趋势加剧，他多次在公开场合探讨日本经济对中国的依赖问题。他曾指出，尽管中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴之一，但过度依赖单一市场存在战略风险。他主张通过加强与印度、东南亚及欧美国家的经济合作，推动供应链多元化，提升日本经济的自主性和韧性。然而，他也承认，在短期内完全摆脱对中国市场的依赖并不现实——无论是原材料进口、制造业中间品供应，还是庞大的消费市场，中国都扮演着难以替代的角色。因此，石破茂强调的并非‘脱钩’，而是‘去风险化’（de-risking），即在维持必要经贸往来的同时，增强应对突发地缘政治冲击的能力。他的观点反映了当前日本政界对华经济战略的主流思潮：既寻求减少脆弱性，又避免全面对抗。
Shigeru Ishiba is a senior politician within Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and has long focused on national security and economic policy. In recent years, amid increasingly complex Sino-Japanese relations and global supply chain realignments, he has repeatedly addressed Japan’s economic dependence on China in public forums. He acknowledges that while China remains one of Japan’s largest trading partners, overreliance on a single market poses strategic risks. Ishiba advocates diversifying supply chains by deepening economic ties with India, Southeast Asia, and Western nations to enhance Japan’s economic autonomy and resilience. However, he also concedes that fully decoupling from China in the short term is unrealistic—China plays an irreplaceable role in raw material imports, intermediate goods for manufacturing, and as a vast consumer market. Therefore, Ishiba emphasizes ‘de-risking’ rather than ‘decoupling’: maintaining essential economic exchanges while strengthening Japan’s capacity to withstand geopolitical shocks. His stance reflects a prevailing view in Japanese policymaking—seeking to reduce vulnerabilities without provoking outright confrontation.
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