近期，多家华尔街顶级投行和分析师纷纷发出警告，预测美元将在2026年面临持续下跌压力。这一观点主要基于三大因素：首先，美国财政赤字持续扩大，政府债务规模已突破35万亿美元，削弱了市场对美元长期价值的信心；其次，美联储货币政策可能在2025年后转向宽松周期，利率优势减弱将导致资本外流；第三，全球去美元化趋势加速，包括金砖国家在内的新兴经济体正积极寻求本币结算和替代性储备资产。高盛、摩根士丹利等机构指出，若美国未能有效控制通胀与债务问题，美元指数或在2026年回落至90以下，较当前水平下跌超10%。投资者需警惕汇率波动风险，并考虑多元化配置非美资产以对冲潜在损失。
Recently, several top Wall Street investment banks and analysts have issued warnings predicting sustained downward pressure on the U.S. dollar through 2026. This outlook is primarily driven by three key factors: First, the persistent expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit—with federal debt surpassing $35 trillion—has eroded market confidence in the dollar’s long-term value. Second, the Federal Reserve is expected to shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy cycle after 2025, reducing the interest rate advantage that has attracted global capital. Third, the accelerating trend of de-dollarization worldwide sees emerging economies, including BRICS nations, actively promoting local currency settlements and alternative reserve assets. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suggest that if the U.S. fails to effectively manage inflation and debt challenges, the U.S. Dollar Index could fall below 90 by 2026—a decline of over 10% from current levels. Investors are advised to remain vigilant about currency volatility and consider diversifying into non-U.S. assets to hedge against potential losses.
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