德国商业银行（德银）近日发布报告指出，美联储即将开启的降息周期可能再次引发美元走弱。该行分析认为，随着美国通胀压力逐步缓解、经济增长动能减弱，美联储将不得不转向宽松货币政策以支撑经济。历史上，每当美联储进入降息阶段，美元往往因利差收窄而承压下跌。当前市场已普遍预期2024年下半年美联储将启动降息，这进一步削弱了美元的吸引力。此外，全球其他主要央行（如欧洲央行和英国央行）在货币政策上相对更为谨慎，使得非美货币获得支撑。德银强调，若美联储降息节奏快于预期，美元指数或面临更大幅度回调。投资者应关注后续非农就业、CPI等关键数据，以判断降息时点与力度，从而调整外汇及资产配置策略。
Deutsche Bank recently released a report indicating that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate-cut cycle could once again trigger a decline in the U.S. dollar. The bank argues that as inflationary pressures in the U.S. gradually ease and economic growth momentum weakens, the Fed will likely pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy to support the economy. Historically, the dollar tends to weaken during Fed easing cycles due to narrowing interest rate differentials with other major economies. Markets are already widely pricing in rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of 2024, which has further diminished the dollar’s appeal. Moreover, other major central banks—such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England—are adopting a more cautious stance on monetary policy, providing support for non-U.S. currencies. Deutsche Bank warns that if the Fed cuts rates faster than expected, the U.S. Dollar Index could experience a sharper correction. Investors should closely monitor key economic indicators like non-farm payrolls and CPI data to gauge the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts, and adjust their foreign exchange and asset allocation strategies accordingly.
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