近日，日本部分学者对高市早苗若出任首相后的政治前景表示悲观。有分析指出，‘高市内阁一定挺不过明年’的说法主要基于其政策立场偏保守、党内支持基础不稳以及当前日本社会对极端右翼倾向的警惕。高市早苗作为自民党内鹰派代表人物，主张修改和平宪法、强化日美同盟、推动核电重启等政策，在国内外引发广泛争议。尽管她在党内拥有一定影响力，但民意调查显示其公众支持率偏低，且缺乏跨党派合作能力。此外，日本经济复苏乏力、少子老龄化加剧、地方财政压力增大等结构性问题，也使任何新内阁都面临严峻考验。学者普遍认为，若高市组阁，其强硬路线可能加剧社会分裂，难以获得国会稳定多数支持，从而导致政权短命。因此，‘挺不过明年’并非危言耸听，而是对其执政可行性的现实评估。
Recently, some Japanese scholars have expressed pessimism about the political prospects of a potential cabinet led by Sanae Takaichi. Analysts suggest that claims such as ‘a Takaichi cabinet would certainly not survive past next year’ stem from her conservative policy stance, unstable support within her party, and growing public wariness in Japan toward far-right tendencies. As a prominent hawkish figure in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Takaichi advocates revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, and restarting nuclear power plants—positions that have sparked considerable domestic and international debate. Although she wields influence within the LDP, opinion polls show low public approval ratings and a lack of cross-party appeal. Moreover, structural challenges—including sluggish economic recovery, accelerating population aging, and mounting fiscal pressures on local governments—pose severe tests for any new administration. Scholars generally argue that if Takaichi were to form a cabinet, her hardline approach could deepen societal divisions and struggle to secure stable majority support in the Diet, likely leading to a short-lived government. Thus, the prediction that her cabinet ‘won’t last beyond next year’ is less alarmist speculation and more a realistic assessment of her governing viability.
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