近日，高盛集团发布最新研究报告，将2025年黄金价格目标大幅上调至每盎司4900美元，远高于当前市价。这一预测主要基于多重宏观因素：首先，全球地缘政治紧张局势持续升级，推动投资者寻求避险资产；其次，美联储货币政策转向预期增强，市场普遍预计2024年下半年将开启降息周期，实际利率下行利好无息资产黄金；再者，各国央行持续增持黄金储备，尤其是新兴市场国家，进一步支撑金价长期走强。此外，美元潜在走弱趋势以及通胀粘性也可能成为黄金的额外催化剂。高盛指出，尽管短期金价可能受市场情绪波动影响，但中长期结构性牛市格局已基本确立。投资者可考虑通过实物黄金、黄金ETF或矿业股等方式配置相关资产，以对冲不确定性风险并捕捉上涨机会。
Recently, Goldman Sachs released a new research report significantly raising its 2025 gold price target to $4,900 per ounce—well above current market levels. This bold forecast is driven by several macroeconomic factors: first, escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide are fueling demand for safe-haven assets; second, growing expectations of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with markets widely anticipating rate cuts starting in the second half of 2024, which would lower real interest rates and benefit non-yielding assets like gold; third, persistent central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets, continues to provide strong structural support for gold prices. Additionally, a potentially weakening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation could serve as further catalysts. Goldman Sachs notes that while short-term price movements may be volatile due to sentiment swings, a long-term structural bull market for gold appears firmly established. Investors may consider exposure through physical gold, gold ETFs, or mining equities to hedge against uncertainty and capitalize on upside potential.
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