近日，汇丰银行发布最新研究报告指出，美联储在2024年和2025年两年内可能都不会启动降息。这一判断主要基于当前美国通胀仍具粘性、劳动力市场保持强劲以及美联储政策制定者对过早放松货币政策持谨慎态度等因素。尽管市场此前普遍预期美联储将在2024年下半年开始降息，但近期公布的经济数据显示，美国核心通胀率仍高于目标水平，且就业市场持续紧张，工资增长压力未明显缓解。这些因素使得美联储更倾向于维持高利率以确保通胀真正回落至2%的目标区间。汇丰分析师强调，若未来几个月通胀数据未能显著改善，或经济未出现明显放缓迹象，美联储很可能将利率维持在当前高位直至2025年底。这一立场与部分其他投行的乐观预测形成鲜明对比，也提醒投资者需调整对利率路径的预期。总体来看，汇丰的观点反映出当前货币政策环境仍处于“higher for longer”（高利率维持更久）的阶段，投资者应为长期高利率环境做好准备，并关注其对股市、债市及全球经济的潜在影响。
Recently, HSBC released a new research report indicating that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in either 2024 or 2025. This forecast is primarily based on persistent inflation, a resilient labor market, and the Fed’s cautious stance against easing monetary policy too soon.Although markets had widely anticipated rate cuts to begin in the second half of 2024, recent economic data shows that core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and the labor market continues to show tight conditions with sustained wage pressures. These factors have led the Fed to favor maintaining higher rates to ensure inflation is firmly under control.HSBC analysts emphasized that if inflation does not meaningfully ease or if the economy shows no clear signs of slowing in the coming months, the Fed is likely to keep rates at current elevated levels through the end of 2025. This outlook contrasts sharply with more optimistic projections from some other investment banks and serves as a reminder for investors to recalibrate their expectations regarding the interest rate path.Overall, HSBC’s view reflects the prevailing ‘higher for longer’ monetary policy environment. Investors should prepare for prolonged elevated interest rates and closely monitor their potential impacts on equities, bonds, and the global economy.
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