2024年一季度，全球存储芯片市场迎来强劲反弹，价格显著上涨。这一轮涨价主要受多重因素驱动：首先，人工智能、数据中心和高性能计算等新兴应用对高带宽内存（如HBM）需求激增；其次，主要厂商如三星、SK海力士和美光在2023年大幅削减资本开支并控制产能，导致市场供应趋紧；此外，行业库存已回归健康水平，为价格上行提供了支撑。进入二季度，市场普遍预期存储芯片价格仍将延续涨势。一方面，AI服务器持续放量，带动DRAM和NAND Flash订单增长；另一方面，厂商维持谨慎扩产策略，叠加部分先进制程产能受限，短期内供需缺口难以快速弥合。分析机构预测，DRAM和NAND在二季度价格涨幅或达10%-20%。因此，‘一季度涨完，二季度还可能涨’并非空穴来风，而是基于当前供需格局与技术演进趋势的合理判断。
In Q1 2024, the global memory chip market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rising significantly. This price surge was driven by multiple factors: first, surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (such as HBM) from emerging applications like artificial intelligence, data centers, and high-performance computing; second, major manufacturers—including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—significantly reduced capital expenditures and controlled production capacity in 2023, tightening supply; and third, industry inventory levels have returned to healthy ranges, supporting upward price momentum. As the market enters Q2, analysts widely expect memory chip prices to continue rising. On one hand, AI server deployments are accelerating, boosting orders for both DRAM and NAND Flash. On the other hand, manufacturers remain cautious about expanding capacity, and constraints in advanced-node production further limit near-term supply growth. Research firms forecast Q2 price increases of 10%–20% for both DRAM and NAND. Therefore, the notion that ‘prices rose in Q1 and may rise again in Q2’ is not speculation—it’s a reasonable outlook grounded in current supply-demand dynamics and technological trends.
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