7月10日夜盘交易时段，上海期货交易所（SHFE）的沪锡和沪镍主力合约双双收跌，跌幅均超过1%。其中，沪锡主力合约下跌约1.3%，报收于每吨236,500元；沪镍主力合约则下跌约1.2%，收于每吨138,200元。市场分析人士指出，金属价格走弱主要受到全球宏观情绪偏空以及下游需求疲软的双重压力影响。近期，美联储维持高利率立场不变，市场对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧，打压了包括基本金属在内的风险资产表现。同时，国内制造业PMI数据表现平淡，进一步削弱了市场对锡、镍等工业金属的需求预期。此外，镍市还面临供应端扰动减弱的利空因素——此前因印尼出口政策引发的供应紧张预期有所缓解，而锡市则受制于电子行业复苏节奏缓慢，终端消费未见明显起色。展望后市，分析师认为若无明显利好刺激，短期内沪锡与沪镍或延续震荡偏弱走势。投资者需密切关注美联储货币政策动向、国内稳增长政策落地情况，以及新能源产业链（如三元电池对镍的需求）的实际进展。
During the night trading session on July 10, the main contracts of Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) and Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel) both declined by more than 1%. Specifically, the SHFE Tin main contract fell approximately 1.3% to close at RMB 236,500 per ton, while SHFE Nickel dropped about 1.2% to settle at RMB 138,200 per ton. Market analysts attribute this weakness primarily to bearish global macro sentiment and sluggish downstream demand.Recently, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance on interest rates, intensifying concerns over a global economic slowdown and weighing on risk assets, including base metals. Domestically, lackluster manufacturing PMI data has further dampened demand expectations for industrial metals like tin and nickel. Additionally, nickel markets face reduced supply-side concerns—earlier supply tightness fears stemming from Indonesia’s export policies have eased. Meanwhile, tin demand remains constrained by the slow recovery in the electronics sector, with no significant rebound in end-user consumption observed.Looking ahead, analysts suggest that without clear positive catalysts, both SHFE Tin and Nickel may continue to trade in a weak, range-bound manner in the near term. Market participants should closely monitor the Fed’s monetary policy direction, the implementation of China’s domestic stimulus measures, and actual developments in the new energy sector—particularly nickel demand from ternary batteries.
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