俄乌和平进程之所以陷入僵局，核心症结在于双方在关键问题上存在根本性分歧。首先，领土问题是最大障碍。俄罗斯坚持要求乌克兰承认其对克里米亚及乌东四州（顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热和赫尔松）的主权，而乌克兰则视这些地区为被非法占领的国土，坚决要求恢复1991年边界。其次，安全保障机制尚未达成共识。乌克兰希望获得具有法律约束力的多边安全保证，甚至寻求加入北约；而俄罗斯则视北约东扩为对其国家安全的直接威胁，要求西方做出明确不接纳乌克兰入约的承诺。此外，战争罪责与赔偿问题也加剧了互信缺失。乌克兰坚持追究俄方战争责任并要求巨额赔偿，而俄方则拒绝承认侵略行为。更深层的原因还在于双方国内政治压力：任何一方若在谈判中做出重大让步，都可能面临国内舆论反弹甚至政权合法性危机。因此，在缺乏第三方有效斡旋、战场态势未明显倾斜的情况下，和平谈判短期内难以取得实质性突破。
The Russia-Ukraine peace process remains stalled primarily due to fundamental disagreements on core issues. First, territorial disputes are the biggest obstacle: Russia insists that Ukraine recognize its sovereignty over Crimea and four eastern regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), while Ukraine considers these areas illegally occupied and demands restoration of its 1991 borders. Second, there is no consensus on security guarantees. Ukraine seeks legally binding multilateral security assurances and even NATO membership, but Russia views NATO’s eastward expansion as a direct threat to its national security and demands explicit Western commitments against Ukraine’s accession. Additionally, disagreements over war crimes accountability and reparations have further eroded mutual trust—Ukraine insists on holding Russia accountable and seeking substantial compensation, while Russia denies any act of aggression. Deeper domestic political pressures also hinder compromise: significant concessions by either side could trigger public backlash or even threaten regime legitimacy. Without effective third-party mediation or a decisive shift in battlefield dynamics, substantive progress in peace negotiations remains unlikely in the near term.
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