近日，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙提出一个引人注目的观点：国际金价的下一目标价可能达到每盎司1万美元。这一预测基于多重宏观因素，包括全球通胀压力持续、地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用体系面临挑战，以及各国央行持续增持黄金储备等。杨德龙指出，黄金作为传统避险资产，在经济不确定性增强的背景下，其价值支撑不断强化。此外，随着去美元化趋势在全球部分国家加速推进，黄金的战略地位进一步提升。他强调，虽然短期内金价波动受市场情绪和美联储政策影响较大，但从中长期看，黄金具备显著的保值与升值潜力。若未来出现重大金融或地缘危机，金价突破历史高点并迈向更高水平并非不可能。投资者应理性看待短期波动，关注黄金在资产配置中的对冲功能。值得注意的是，当前国际金价虽已屡创新高，但距离1万美元仍有较大差距。该预测更多体现了一种长期战略视角，而非短期市场预期。投资者在参考此类观点时，应结合自身风险承受能力与投资目标，审慎决策。
Recently, Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, made a striking prediction: the next target price for international gold could reach $10,000 per ounce. This forecast is based on multiple macroeconomic factors, including persistent global inflationary pressures, escalating geopolitical risks, challenges to the U.S. dollar’s credibility, and continued gold purchases by central banks worldwide. Yang noted that gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, gains stronger fundamental support amid rising economic uncertainty. Furthermore, as de-dollarization accelerates in certain countries, gold’s strategic importance is further elevated. While short-term gold price movements remain sensitive to market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy, Yang emphasized that gold holds significant long-term potential for value preservation and appreciation. In the event of major financial or geopolitical crises, it is not implausible for gold to surpass previous record highs and move toward even loftier levels. Investors should maintain a rational perspective on short-term volatility and recognize gold’s role as a hedge within diversified portfolios.It should be noted that although gold prices have recently hit new highs, they remain far from the $10,000 mark. This projection reflects a long-term strategic outlook rather than a near-term market expectation. Investors should carefully consider their own risk tolerance and investment objectives when evaluating such forecasts.
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