近年来，全球主要央行的资产负债表规模与结构出现显著分化，反映出各国在货币政策路径、经济复苏节奏和通胀压力应对上的差异。美联储自2022年起启动量化紧缩（QT），通过停止 reinvestment 和主动缩表，使其资产负债表从峰值近9万亿美元缩减至约7.4万亿美元。相比之下，日本央行仍维持超宽松政策，资产负债表持续扩张，已超过其GDP的130%。欧洲央行虽结束资产购买计划，但再投资仍在进行，缩表步伐相对温和。中国央行则采取结构性工具为主、总量适度的策略，资产负债表规模保持相对稳定。这种分化不仅源于各国经济基本面的差异，也受到地缘政治、能源结构和金融体系特点的影响。未来，若主要经济体货币政策进一步背离，可能加剧跨境资本流动波动、汇率压力以及全球金融条件的不均衡，对新兴市场构成挑战。因此，全球政策协调的重要性日益凸显。
In recent years, the balance sheets of major central banks have shown pronounced divergence in both size and composition, reflecting differing monetary policy paths, economic recovery paces, and approaches to inflation pressures. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has pursued quantitative tightening (QT), halting reinvestments and actively shrinking its balance sheet from a peak of nearly $9 trillion to around $7.4 trillion. In contrast, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose stance, with its balance sheet still expanding and now exceeding 130% of Japan’s GDP. The European Central Bank, while ending its asset purchase program, maintains reinvestments and is unwinding its balance sheet at a more gradual pace. The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, relies primarily on targeted liquidity tools and has kept its balance sheet relatively stable. This divergence stems not only from differences in economic fundamentals but also from geopolitical factors, energy structures, and financial system characteristics. Going forward, further policy divergence among major economies could amplify volatility in cross-border capital flows, exchange rate pressures, and global financial conditions—posing challenges for emerging markets. As such, enhanced international policy coordination is becoming increasingly critical.
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