2025年，中国房地产市场预计将继续延续调整态势。在‘房住不炒’政策基调不变、人口结构变化以及居民杠杆率高企等多重因素影响下，市场整体呈现供需双弱格局。一方面，购房者信心尚未完全恢复，观望情绪浓厚；另一方面，部分房企仍面临流动性压力，投资意愿偏弱。尽管多地已出台优化限购、降低首付比例、提供购房补贴等支持性政策，但政策效果传导至市场仍需时间。此外，保障性住房建设和城中村改造等‘三大工程’的推进，有望在中长期改善住房供应结构，稳定市场预期。总体来看，2025年房地产市场将处于筑底修复阶段，行业分化加剧，优质房企和核心城市项目更具韧性，而三四线城市去库存压力依然较大。未来市场企稳回升，有赖于经济基本面改善、居民收入预期修复以及房地产长效机制的进一步完善。
In 2025, China’s real estate market is expected to continue its adjustment phase. Under the consistent policy stance of ‘housing is for living, not for speculation,’ coupled with demographic shifts and high household debt levels, the market faces a dual weakness in both supply and demand. On one hand, homebuyer confidence remains fragile, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude; on the other, developers still grapple with liquidity constraints and limited investment appetite. Although numerous cities have rolled out supportive measures—such as easing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment requirements, and offering homebuying subsidies—the full impact of these policies will take time to materialize. Meanwhile, the ongoing implementation of the ‘Three Major Projects,’ including affordable housing development and urban village redevelopment, is expected to improve housing supply structures and stabilize long-term market expectations. Overall, the market in 2025 will likely remain in a bottoming-out and gradual recovery phase, with growing divergence across regions: high-quality developers and projects in core cities showing greater resilience, while lower-tier cities continue to face significant inventory overhang. A sustainable market rebound ultimately hinges on broader economic recovery, improved household income prospects, and further refinement of long-term real estate mechanisms.
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