近期，中国生猪市场呈现出‘冰与火’的鲜明对比：一方面，生猪出栏量持续攀升，头部猪企销量屡创新高；另一方面，猪价却长期低迷，企业普遍陷入‘卖得多、赚得少’甚至亏损的困境。这种矛盾现象的背后，是供需失衡与行业周期叠加的结果。自2023年以来，随着前期产能扩张释放，市场供应大幅增加，而终端消费复苏不及预期，导致猪价承压下行。尽管部分企业通过优化成本、提升效率来缓解压力，但在全行业平均成本线附近徘徊的猪价，仍难以支撑盈利。此外，疫病风险、饲料成本波动以及政策调控等因素也加剧了经营不确定性。专家指出，未来猪企需从盲目扩产转向精细化管理，强化产业链协同，才能在周期波动中实现可持续发展。
Recently, China’s hog market has exhibited a stark ‘ice and fire’ contrast: on one hand, hog slaughter volumes continue to rise, with leading pig producers reporting record sales; on the other, pork prices remain persistently low, leaving many companies in a situation where ‘the more they sell, the less they earn’—or even operating at a loss. This paradox stems from an imbalance between supply and demand, compounded by the cyclical nature of the industry. Since 2023, previously expanded production capacity has flooded the market with supply, while consumer demand has recovered slower than expected, exerting downward pressure on prices. Although some firms have mitigated losses through cost optimization and operational efficiency, prevailing prices hovering near industry-average costs make profitability elusive. Additional uncertainties—including disease outbreaks, feed price volatility, and government policy adjustments—further complicate the outlook. Experts suggest that for sustainable growth amid market cycles, pig producers must shift from aggressive expansion to refined management and strengthen vertical integration across the supply chain.
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