近日，高盛集团宣布将其对2026年12月黄金价格的预期从此前的每盎司2,300美元上调至2,700美元。这一调整主要基于多重宏观因素的支撑，包括全球地缘政治风险持续升温、主要经济体货币政策转向宽松、以及美元长期走弱的预期。高盛指出，随着美联储可能在2024年下半年启动降息周期，实际利率将趋于下行，从而提升无息资产黄金的吸引力。此外，各国央行持续增持黄金储备，尤其是新兴市场国家为降低对美元依赖而增加黄金配置，也进一步推高了黄金的结构性需求。高盛还强调，若未来出现经济衰退或金融市场剧烈波动，黄金作为避险资产的地位将更加凸显。因此，该行认为黄金在未来两年内仍有显著上行空间，并建议投资者在投资组合中维持对黄金的战略性配置。
Recently, Goldman Sachs announced it has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from the previous $2,300 per ounce to $2,700 per ounce. This revision is primarily driven by several supportive macroeconomic factors, including escalating geopolitical risks globally, an anticipated shift toward looser monetary policies in major economies, and expectations of a prolonged weakening U.S. dollar. Goldman Sachs noted that as the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024, real interest rates will trend downward, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, continued gold purchases by central banks—particularly emerging market nations seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar—are bolstering structural demand for the precious metal. The bank also emphasized that in the event of a future economic recession or significant financial market volatility, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset would become even more pronounced. Consequently, Goldman Sachs believes gold still has substantial upside potential over the next two years and recommends investors maintain a strategic allocation to gold in their portfolios.
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