近日，摩根大通发布最新研究报告，预计美联储在2024年将仅进行一次降息。这一预测明显低于市场此前普遍预期的多次降息，反映出该行对美国通胀粘性及经济韧性的谨慎判断。报告指出，尽管通胀数据已从2022年的高点回落，但核心通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标水平，且劳动力市场保持强劲，这可能促使美联储维持较高利率更长时间以确保通胀彻底受控。此外，近期美国经济增长表现稳健，消费者支出和企业投资均未出现明显疲软迹象，进一步削弱了快速降息的必要性。摩根大通强调，若未来几个月通胀回落速度放缓或就业市场持续紧张，美联储甚至可能推迟降息时点至2024年下半年。这一观点与部分华尔街机构形成对比，凸显当前市场对货币政策路径的分歧。投资者需密切关注即将公布的CPI、非农就业等关键数据，以判断美联储政策走向。
JPMorgan Chase recently released a new research report forecasting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates only once in 2024. This outlook is notably more conservative than the market’s earlier expectations of multiple rate cuts, reflecting the bank’s cautious view on persistent U.S. inflation and economic resilience. The report notes that although inflation has declined from its 2022 peak, core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and the labor market remains robust—factors that may lead the Fed to keep rates elevated for longer to ensure inflation is firmly under control. Moreover, recent data shows solid U.S. economic growth, with consumer spending and business investment showing no significant signs of weakness, further reducing the urgency for rapid rate cuts. JPMorgan emphasized that if inflation cools more slowly than expected or if labor market conditions remain tight in the coming months, the Fed could even delay its first rate cut until the second half of 2024. This stance contrasts with some other Wall Street institutions, highlighting growing divergence in market views on the Fed’s policy path. Investors should closely monitor upcoming key indicators such as CPI and non-farm payroll data to gauge the likely direction of monetary policy.
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