日本目前部署的导弹系统，如12式岸舰导弹及其改进型，具备一定的反舰能力，射程正在逐步延伸至1000公里以上。然而，对中国航母构成实质性威胁仍面临多重挑战。首先，中国航母战斗群通常配备先进的预警机、驱逐舰和电子战系统，具备强大的区域防空与反导能力，可有效拦截来袭导弹。其次，日本缺乏远程侦察与目标指示体系，难以在远海持续锁定高速机动的航母编队。此外，中国海军近年来加速发展远洋作战能力，航母活动范围多在第二岛链以外，超出日本现有导弹的有效打击半径。因此，尽管日本在强化导弹技术，但其当前装备对中国航母的实际威胁有限，更多体现为区域威慑意图而非实战能力。
Japan’s current missile systems, such as the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile and its upgraded variants, possess certain anti-ship capabilities, with ranges being extended beyond 1,000 kilometers. However, posing a substantial threat to Chinese aircraft carriers remains challenging for several reasons. First, Chinese carrier strike groups are typically equipped with advanced early-warning aircraft, destroyers, and electronic warfare systems, offering robust area air defense and anti-missile capabilities that can effectively intercept incoming missiles. Second, Japan lacks a long-range reconnaissance and targeting infrastructure, making it difficult to continuously track and lock onto fast-moving carrier groups in distant waters. Moreover, the Chinese Navy has significantly enhanced its blue-water operational capabilities in recent years, often operating its carriers beyond the Second Island Chain—well outside the effective strike range of Japan’s current missile inventory. Therefore, while Japan is enhancing its missile technologies, its existing arsenal poses limited practical threat to Chinese carriers, serving more as a regional deterrence signal than a credible combat capability.
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