近期，中信建投证券发布研报指出，美国国债的配置价值正在逐步显现，‘美债的买点将至’。该观点主要基于当前美国经济数据边际走弱、通胀压力有所缓解以及美联储加息周期接近尾声等多重因素。首先，美国多项领先经济指标（如制造业PMI、消费者信心指数）出现回落，暗示经济增长动能减弱。其次，尽管核心通胀仍具黏性，但整体CPI同比增速已连续数月下行，市场对通胀预期趋于稳定。此外，美联储在最近几次议息会议中释放出暂停加息甚至未来可能降息的信号，令市场利率预期转向宽松。在此背景下，10年期美债收益率已从高点显著回落，债券价格具备反弹空间。中信建投认为，对于全球资产配置者而言，当前美债估值已进入具有吸引力的区间，尤其是考虑到其避险属性和相对稳定的票息收益。因此，建议投资者可逐步关注并布局中长期美债，把握潜在的利率下行带来的资本利得机会。
Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report stating that the investment value of U.S. Treasury bonds is gradually becoming evident, suggesting that ‘the buying opportunity for U.S. Treasuries is approaching.’ This view is primarily based on several factors: the marginal weakening of U.S. economic data, easing inflation pressures, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle nearing its end.First, leading U.S. economic indicators—such as the Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Confidence Index—have shown signs of decline, indicating waning economic momentum. Second, although core inflation remains sticky, the year-over-year CPI growth has declined for several consecutive months, stabilizing market inflation expectations. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has recently signaled a potential pause in rate hikes—and even possible future rate cuts—shifting market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary stance.Against this backdrop, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has retreated significantly from its recent highs, creating room for price appreciation. CSC argues that U.S. Treasuries now offer attractive valuations for global asset allocators, especially given their safe-haven status and relatively stable coupon income. Therefore, the firm recommends investors gradually consider building positions in medium- to long-term U.S. Treasuries to capture potential capital gains from an anticipated decline in interest rates.
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