近期，多位市场分析师指出，贵金属（尤其是黄金和白银）有望迎来一轮周期性牛市。这一判断主要基于全球经济不确定性加剧、通胀压力持续存在以及各国央行维持宽松货币政策的背景。在地缘政治紧张、金融市场波动加剧的环境下，投资者对避险资产的需求显著上升，而黄金作为传统的‘安全港’资产，自然成为资金流入的首选。此外，全球主要经济体的实际利率仍处于低位甚至负值，这削弱了持有现金或债券的吸引力，进一步提升了无息资产如黄金的相对价值。与此同时，部分央行持续增持黄金储备，也反映出官方机构对贵金属长期价值的认可。技术面来看，黄金价格已突破多个关键阻力位，市场情绪趋于乐观，交易量稳步放大，显示出强劲的上涨动能。白银作为兼具工业属性与投资属性的金属，在新能源和电子产业需求增长的推动下，也可能同步走强。综合基本面、政策面与技术面因素，分析师普遍认为，未来12至24个月内，贵金属市场或将进入一个中长期的上行周期，为投资者提供良好的配置机会。
Recently, several market analysts have suggested that precious metals—particularly gold and silver—are poised to enter a cyclical bull market. This outlook is primarily driven by heightened global economic uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, and the continuation of accommodative monetary policies by central banks worldwide. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and increased financial market volatility, investor demand for safe-haven assets has surged, with gold—traditionally viewed as a ‘safe haven’—becoming a preferred destination for capital.Moreover, real interest rates in major economies remain low or even negative, diminishing the appeal of holding cash or bonds and thereby enhancing the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, ongoing purchases of gold by central banks signal institutional confidence in the long-term value of precious metals.From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken through several key resistance levels, market sentiment has turned optimistic, and trading volumes are steadily increasing—indicating strong upward momentum. Silver, which possesses both industrial and investment attributes, may also strengthen in tandem, supported by rising demand from renewable energy and electronics sectors.Taking into account fundamental, policy-related, and technical factors, analysts broadly agree that the precious metals market could embark on a medium- to long-term upward cycle over the next 12 to 24 months, presenting attractive opportunities for investors.
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