近年来，美国频繁挥舞‘关税大棒’，对包括盟友在内的多国加征高额关税，引发西方内部关系紧张。从对欧盟钢铝产品征税，到威胁对法国数字服务税实施报复，再到推动‘友岸外包’（friend-shoring）以重塑供应链，美国的单边主义贸易政策正不断考验跨大西洋联盟的凝聚力。尽管美欧在价值观和安全议题上仍高度一致，但在经济利益面前，分歧日益显现。例如，欧盟已多次向WTO提起诉讼，并加速推进战略自主，减少对美依赖。与此同时，加拿大、日本等传统盟友也对美国的保护主义倾向表示不满。然而，面对共同的地缘政治挑战——尤其是来自中国的竞争压力以及俄乌冲突带来的安全威胁，西方国家仍有强烈动机维持合作。因此，短期内西方联盟不太可能彻底‘散伙’，但其内部裂痕正在扩大，合作模式或将从‘无条件团结’转向‘有选择性协调’。未来，美国若继续以牺牲盟友利益换取本国短期经济利益，恐将削弱其领导力，加速多极化世界的形成。
In recent years, the United States has repeatedly wielded its ‘tariff stick,’ imposing high tariffs on allies and other countries alike, straining relations within the Western alliance. From levying tariffs on EU steel and aluminum to threatening retaliatory measures against France’s digital services tax, and promoting ‘friend-shoring’ to reshape supply chains, America’s unilateral trade policies are increasingly testing transatlantic unity. While the U.S. and Europe remain aligned on values and security issues, economic disagreements are growing. The EU has filed multiple complaints with the WTO and is accelerating efforts toward strategic autonomy to reduce reliance on the U.S. Traditional allies like Canada and Japan have also expressed frustration with American protectionism. However, facing shared geopolitical challenges—particularly strategic competition with China and security threats stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war—Western nations still have strong incentives to maintain cooperation. Thus, while a full breakup of the Western alliance appears unlikely in the short term, internal fractures are widening, and collaboration may shift from ‘unconditional solidarity’ to ‘selective coordination.’ If the U.S. continues prioritizing short-term domestic gains at the expense of its allies’ interests, it risks eroding its own leadership and hastening the emergence of a multipolar world order.
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