汇丰银行近期发布报告指出，澳大利亚央行（RBA）在2024年2月可能再次加息，这一举措将对家庭和企业带来显著的经济压力。尽管通胀数据略有缓和，但核心通胀仍具粘性，劳动力市场紧张，促使澳央行维持鹰派立场。汇丰经济学家认为，若央行在2月会议上决定加息25个基点，将使现金利率升至4.6%，这将是自2012年以来的最高水平。对于已承受高房贷负担的澳大利亚家庭而言，进一步加息意味着更高的还款压力，可能抑制消费支出并拖累经济增长。此外，中小企业融资成本也将上升，影响投资意愿。汇丰强调，尽管控制通胀是当前首要任务，但政策制定者需警惕过度紧缩带来的经济下行风险。市场普遍预期2月会议将成为本轮加息周期的‘最后一搏’，未来政策走向将高度依赖通胀与就业数据的表现。
HSBC recently issued a report indicating that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may raise interest rates again in February 2024, a move that would impose significant economic pressure on households and businesses. Although headline inflation has shown some moderation, core inflation remains sticky, and the labor market stays tight—factors pushing the RBA to maintain a hawkish stance. HSBC economists suggest that if the central bank opts for a 25-basis-point hike at its February meeting, the cash rate would rise to 4.6%, the highest level since 2012. For Australian households already burdened by high mortgage repayments, further rate hikes mean increased financial strain, potentially dampening consumer spending and weighing on economic growth. Additionally, higher borrowing costs will affect small and medium-sized enterprises, curbing their investment appetite. While controlling inflation remains the top priority, HSBC cautions policymakers against the risks of over-tightening, which could trigger an economic downturn. Markets widely view the February meeting as the potential ‘final push’ of this tightening cycle, with future policy direction heavily dependent on incoming inflation and employment data.
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