近日，国家发展改革委宣布，自2024年3月18日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上调150元和140元。这是今年以来国内成品油价格的首次上调，结束了此前连续两次的下调走势。此次调价主要受国际原油市场价格波动影响。近期，受地缘政治紧张局势、OPEC+延长减产协议以及全球能源需求预期回升等因素推动，国际油价持续走高。布伦特原油和纽约轻质原油期货价格均突破每桶85美元，为国内油价上调提供了支撑。按照现行成品油价格形成机制，我国成品油价格与国际市场原油价格挂钩，每10个工作日调整一次。本次上调后，全国大部分地区92号汽油零售价重回“7元时代”，部分省份甚至逼近8元/升。对于消费者而言，私家车加满一箱50升的92号汽油将多花约6元左右；物流运输等用油大户的成本也将随之上升。专家分析指出，未来油价走势仍存在较大不确定性，需密切关注中东局势、美联储货币政策以及全球经济复苏节奏。若国际油价维持高位，下一轮调价窗口（3月31日24时）仍存在继续上调的可能。
Recently, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that, effective at 24:00 on March 18, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by RMB 150 and RMB 140 per ton, respectively. This marks the first upward adjustment of refined oil prices in China this year, ending a previous trend of two consecutive decreases. The price hike is primarily driven by fluctuations in international crude oil markets. Recently, geopolitical tensions, OPEC+’s decision to extend production cuts, and rising expectations for global energy demand have pushed international oil prices higher. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have surpassed USD 85 per barrel, providing strong support for the domestic price increase.Under China’s current refined oil pricing mechanism, domestic fuel prices are linked to international crude benchmarks and adjusted every 10 working days. Following this adjustment, retail prices for Grade 92 gasoline in most regions have returned to the “RMB 7 per liter” range, with some provinces approaching RMB 8 per liter. For consumers, filling a 50-liter tank of Grade 92 gasoline now costs about RMB 6 more than before. Transportation and logistics companies, which consume large volumes of fuel, will also face higher operating costs.Experts note that future oil price trends remain highly uncertain, depending on developments in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and the pace of global economic recovery. If international crude prices stay elevated, another price increase could occur at the next adjustment window on March 31, 2024.
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