高盛最新快评指出，美联储在本次议息会议上决定维持利率不变，但释放出明显的鸽派信号，暗示2024年可能开启降息周期。尽管当前通胀仍略高于目标水平，但核心通胀已连续数月回落，劳动力市场也出现温和降温迹象，为政策转向提供空间。高盛认为，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话强调了‘数据依赖’原则，同时承认近期经济指标支持未来适度宽松。基于此，高盛维持其预测：美联储或将在2024年9月首次降息，并在年内累计降息50个基点。不过，高盛也提醒，若通胀反弹或就业市场再度过热，降息时点可能推迟。总体而言，本次决议标志着货币政策从紧缩向中性过渡的关键节点，市场对年内降息预期进一步升温。
In its latest quick take, Goldman Sachs noted that the Federal Reserve decided to hold rates steady at this policy meeting but sent a clear dovish signal, suggesting a potential rate-cut cycle could begin in 2024. Although inflation remains slightly above target, core inflation has declined for several consecutive months, and the labor market is showing signs of modest cooling—creating room for a policy pivot. Goldman Sachs highlighted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a ‘data-dependent’ approach while acknowledging that recent economic indicators support a modest easing stance in the future. Based on this, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast: the Fed could deliver its first rate cut in September 2024, with a total of 50 basis points in cuts by year-end. However, the firm also cautioned that a resurgence in inflation or renewed overheating in the labor market could delay the timing of cuts. Overall, this decision marks a pivotal shift in monetary policy from tightening toward neutrality, further fueling market expectations for rate cuts within the year.
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