在2023年12月的货币政策会议上，美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在5.25%至5.50%不变，这是自7月以来连续第三次暂停加息。此次会议声明整体基调偏鸽派，释放出未来可能降息的信号。与此前相比，声明中删除了‘进一步收紧政策可能是适当的’这一措辞，转而强调将根据数据决定未来的利率路径。同时，美联储重申其2%的长期通胀目标，并指出近期通胀压力已有所缓解，但劳动力市场依然紧张。值得注意的是，美联储在会后公布的经济预测摘要（SEP）中大幅下调了2024年的利率预期中值，暗示明年可能进行三次25个基点的降息。此外，主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，若通胀继续向目标回落且经济保持稳健，美联储将‘准备好调整政策立场’。总体来看，12月声明标志着美联储从‘抗通胀优先’转向‘平衡增长与通胀’的新阶段，为市场注入更多宽松预期。
At its December 2023 monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%, marking the third consecutive pause since July. The statement adopted a notably more dovish tone, signaling potential rate cuts ahead. Notably, the Fed removed the phrase ‘further tightening of policy may be appropriate,’ which had appeared in prior statements, and instead emphasized that future policy decisions would be data-dependent. The statement reaffirmed the Fed’s long-term 2% inflation goal and acknowledged that recent inflationary pressures have eased, although the labor market remains tight.Significantly, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released after the meeting showed a sharp downward revision to the median interest rate forecast for 2024, implying three 25-basis-point rate cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell further clarified in the press conference that if inflation continues to move sustainably toward the 2% target and the economy remains resilient, the Fed would be ‘prepared to adjust the stance of policy.’ Overall, the December statement marks a strategic shift from prioritizing inflation control to balancing inflation and economic growth, fueling market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy ahead.
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