近期，中金公司发布研究报告，明确看涨铝价及吨铝利润的扩张前景。报告指出，受全球能源转型加速、新能源汽车和光伏等下游需求持续增长推动，铝作为轻量化和可再生金属的战略地位日益凸显。同时，国内电解铝产能已接近政策设定的4500万吨“天花板”，供给端增长受限，而成本端因电力结构优化和氧化铝价格企稳，有望支撑利润空间。此外，海外能源成本高企叠加地缘政治扰动，进一步限制了海外铝产能释放，全球供需格局趋于紧张。中金预计，在需求刚性增长与供给刚性约束的双重作用下，铝价有望维持高位震荡上行，吨铝利润也将随之扩张，利好具备低成本优势和一体化布局的龙头企业。投资者可关注具备资源保障、绿色低碳转型能力的优质铝企。
Recently, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report expressing a bullish outlook on aluminum prices and the expansion of per-ton aluminum profit margins. The report highlights that accelerating global energy transition, coupled with sustained demand growth from downstream sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics, is reinforcing aluminum’s strategic role as a lightweight and recyclable metal. Domestically, China’s primary aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy-imposed ceiling of 45 million metric tons, limiting supply-side growth. Meanwhile, stable alumina prices and an optimized power mix are helping to contain production costs, supporting margin expansion. Internationally, high energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties further constrain overseas aluminum output, tightening the global supply-demand balance. CICC forecasts that under the dual pressure of resilient demand and constrained supply, aluminum prices will likely trend upward within a high range, driving broader per-ton profits—particularly benefiting leading producers with low-cost advantages and integrated operations. Investors are advised to focus on high-quality aluminum companies with strong resource security and capabilities in green, low-carbon transformation.
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