近期，多位房地产与经济领域专家指出，当前中国正处在从‘土地财政’向多元化财政收入模式转型的关键阶段。在此过程中，地方政府对卖地收入的依赖虽需逐步降低，但房价的稳定仍至关重要。专家强调，‘越要告别卖地依赖，越要稳房价’，因为房价剧烈波动不仅会冲击居民财富和消费信心，还可能引发金融系统性风险，进而影响整体经济平稳运行。一方面，若房价过快下跌，将导致土地出让收入锐减，加剧地方财政压力；另一方面，过度刺激房价又可能延缓经济结构转型，形成新的泡沫。因此，政策制定者需在‘去依赖’与‘稳预期’之间寻求平衡，通过完善房地产长效机制、发展租赁市场、优化土地供应结构等手段，实现房地产市场的软着陆与高质量发展。
Recently, experts in real estate and economics have emphasized that China is at a critical juncture in transitioning from a ‘land-based fiscal model’ to a more diversified revenue system. While local governments must gradually reduce their reliance on land sales, maintaining housing price stability remains crucial. As experts put it, ‘The more we aim to move away from dependence on land sales, the more we need to stabilize housing prices.’ Sharp fluctuations in property prices could not only erode household wealth and consumer confidence but also trigger systemic financial risks, undermining overall economic stability. On one hand, a rapid decline in home prices would sharply reduce land transfer revenues, worsening local fiscal stress. On the other hand, excessive stimulus to prop up prices might delay necessary economic restructuring and fuel new asset bubbles. Therefore, policymakers must strike a balance between reducing land-sale dependency and stabilizing market expectations. This can be achieved by strengthening long-term housing mechanisms, expanding the rental market, and optimizing land supply structures—ultimately guiding the real estate sector toward a soft landing and high-quality development.
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