近期，多位财经大V指出，2026年全球流动性大概率将进入紧缩周期。这一判断主要基于当前主要经济体的货币政策走向、通胀压力持续存在以及债务水平高企等多重因素。美联储、欧洲央行等全球主要央行在经历2020年以来的宽松周期后，已逐步转向加息和缩表，以抑制通胀并稳定金融体系。尽管短期内部分国家可能因经济放缓而暂缓紧缩步伐，但从中长期来看，为防范系统性风险和维持货币信用，全球流动性环境将趋于收紧。此外，地缘政治紧张、能源结构转型及供应链重构等因素也加剧了宏观经济的不确定性，促使各国央行更倾向于采取审慎甚至偏紧的货币政策。市场普遍预期，2026年前后，随着通胀预期回落至目标区间、劳动力市场趋于平衡，政策利率将维持在相对高位，从而限制市场资金的过度充裕。投资者需警惕流动性收紧对资产价格、企业融资成本及经济增长带来的潜在冲击，并提前做好资产配置调整。
Recently, several prominent financial influencers have suggested that global liquidity is highly likely to enter a tightening cycle by 2026. This outlook is primarily based on the current monetary policy trajectories of major economies, persistent inflationary pressures, and elevated debt levels. After an extended period of accommodative policies since 2020, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have gradually shifted toward rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to curb inflation and stabilize the financial system. Although some countries may temporarily pause tightening due to economic slowdowns in the short term, the medium- to long-term trend points toward a more constrained liquidity environment aimed at mitigating systemic risks and preserving monetary credibility.Moreover, geopolitical tensions, energy transition dynamics, and supply chain reconfigurations have further heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, prompting central banks to adopt more cautious—even restrictive—monetary stances. Market consensus anticipates that by around 2026, as inflation expectations settle within target ranges and labor markets reach equilibrium, policy rates will remain relatively high, limiting excessive liquidity. Investors should be alert to the potential impacts of tighter liquidity on asset prices, corporate borrowing costs, and economic growth, and proactively adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly.
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