2025年，全球通胀在多重因素交织下呈现结构性分化。一方面，主要发达经济体如美国和欧元区在货币政策持续收紧、供应链逐步修复以及能源价格回落的共同作用下，通胀率显著回落至接近目标区间；另一方面，部分新兴市场国家受地缘政治冲突、货币贬值及财政赤字压力影响，通胀仍居高不下。中国则凭借稳健的宏观政策与充足的产能供给，维持了相对温和的物价水平。展望2026年，智库普遍认为全球通胀将趋于温和但不确定性犹存。美联储等主要央行或进入降息周期，但劳动力市场紧张、气候变化引发的农产品价格波动，以及人工智能等技术变革对生产成本的长期影响，可能成为新的通胀驱动因素。此外，全球债务高企与财政可持续性问题也可能限制政策空间。总体而言，2026年通胀走势将更依赖各国政策协调与结构性改革成效，而非单纯依赖货币政策。智库建议加强国际合作，提升供应链韧性，并推动绿色与数字转型以增强经济抗风险能力。
In 2025, global inflation exhibited structural divergence amid a confluence of factors. In major advanced economies such as the United States and the eurozone, inflation significantly eased toward target ranges, driven by sustained monetary tightening, gradual supply chain recovery, and declining energy prices. Conversely, some emerging markets continued to grapple with elevated inflation due to geopolitical tensions, currency depreciation, and fiscal deficits. China maintained relatively stable price levels, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies and robust production capacity. Looking ahead to 2026, think tanks generally anticipate a more moderate global inflation outlook, albeit with lingering uncertainties. Central banks like the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates, yet persistent labor market tightness, climate-induced volatility in agricultural prices, and the long-term cost implications of technological shifts—such as AI—could emerge as new inflationary pressures. Additionally, high global debt levels and fiscal sustainability concerns may constrain policy flexibility. Overall, the inflation trajectory in 2026 will likely hinge more on international policy coordination and structural reforms than on monetary policy alone. Think tanks recommend strengthening global cooperation, enhancing supply chain resilience, and accelerating green and digital transitions to bolster economic resilience.
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