近日，摩根士丹利（大摩）发布研报，大幅上调荷兰光刻机巨头ASML的目标价，并给出“增持”评级，认为其股价仍有约70%的上涨空间。大摩指出，尽管ASML当前估值已处于历史高位，但其在高端芯片制造设备领域的垄断地位、强劲的订单增长以及人工智能和高性能计算需求的持续爆发，将推动公司未来数年实现稳健增长。ASML是全球唯一能生产极紫外光刻机（EUV）的厂商，而EUV设备是制造7纳米及以下先进制程芯片的关键。随着台积电、三星和英特尔等晶圆代工厂加速扩产先进制程产能，对ASML设备的需求持续攀升。此外，美国对华技术出口管制虽限制了部分中国市场销售，但反而促使其他地区客户提前下单以锁定产能，进一步推高ASML的订单可见度。大摩预计，ASML 2024-2026年营收和利润将保持双位数复合增长率，并强调其技术壁垒极高，竞争对手短期内难以撼动其市场主导地位。因此，尽管当前股价已屡创新高，但长期来看仍具显著上行潜力。
Recently, Morgan Stanley (MS) released a research report significantly raising its price target for ASML, the Dutch semiconductor lithography equipment giant, and reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating, suggesting the stock still has approximately 70% upside potential. MS noted that despite ASML’s current valuation being at historical highs, its dominant position in advanced chip manufacturing equipment, strong order growth, and surging demand driven by artificial intelligence and high-performance computing will support robust growth over the next several years.ASML is the world’s sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing chips at the 7-nanometer node and below. As major foundries like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel accelerate capacity expansion for advanced nodes, demand for ASML’s systems continues to rise. Moreover, while U.S. export controls have limited some sales to China, they have prompted customers in other regions to place orders earlier to secure capacity, further boosting ASML’s order visibility.Morgan Stanley forecasts double-digit compound annual growth in ASML’s revenue and earnings from 2024 to 2026, highlighting the company’s formidable technological moat and the near impossibility for rivals to challenge its market leadership in the short term. Thus, despite its record-high share price, ASML retains significant long-term upside potential.
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