近日，国际知名投行摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）宣布上调对美元兑日元（USD/JPY）汇率的预期。该机构将2024年底的目标汇率从此前的155上调至160，反映出其对美日货币政策分化进一步扩大的判断。摩根士丹利指出，美联储在通胀压力尚未完全缓解的背景下，可能维持较高利率更长时间；而日本央行虽已结束负利率政策，但整体货币政策仍相对宽松，加息步伐缓慢。这种“一紧一松”的货币政策格局，持续支撑美元走强、日元承压。此外，地缘政治风险、全球避险情绪波动以及日本经常账户盈余收窄等因素，也削弱了日元作为传统避险货币的吸引力。分析师认为，在美国经济基本面保持韧性、日本薪资增长和通胀动能不足的情况下，日元短期内难以扭转弱势。不过，摩根士丹利也提醒，若日本央行在未来几个季度加快收紧货币政策，或美国经济出现明显放缓迹象，当前的汇率走势可能面临调整。投资者需密切关注两国央行政策动向及宏观经济数据变化。
Recently, global investment bank Morgan Stanley announced an upward revision of its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate. The firm raised its year-end 2024 target from a previous 155 to 160, reflecting its view that the divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies is set to widen further.Morgan Stanley noted that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates elevated for longer due to persistent inflationary pressures, while the Bank of Japan—although it has ended negative interest rates—remains relatively dovish, with a cautious and gradual pace of tightening. This ‘tight-loose’ policy divergence continues to bolster the U.S. dollar and weigh on the yen.Moreover, geopolitical risks, fluctuating global risk sentiment, and a narrowing Japanese current account surplus have weakened the yen’s traditional appeal as a safe-haven currency. Analysts argue that given the resilience of the U.S. economy and Japan’s insufficient wage growth and inflation momentum, the yen is unlikely to reverse its weakness in the near term.However, Morgan Stanley also cautioned that if the Bank of Japan accelerates monetary tightening in the coming quarters or if clear signs of a U.S. economic slowdown emerge, the current exchange rate trend could shift. Investors should closely monitor central bank policy signals and key macroeconomic data from both countries.
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