近期，多位国际关系专家指出，在当前伊朗核问题和地区紧张局势不断升级的背景下，真正需要警惕的并非伊朗本身，而是以色列可能采取的单边军事行动。专家认为，尽管伊朗的核计划和区域影响力确实引发担忧，但其行为总体上仍处于可预测和可控范围内。相比之下，以色列长期以来对伊朗在中东的代理人网络（如黎巴嫩真主党、叙利亚境内武装）持高度敌视态度，并多次实施跨境空袭。随着伊朗与西方谈判陷入僵局，以色列可能认为外交手段已失效，从而倾向于通过先发制人的打击来消除所谓‘生存威胁’。这种单边行动不仅可能引发更大规模的地区冲突，还可能破坏国际社会为缓和局势所做的努力。因此，专家呼吁相关各方加强对以色列行为的约束，推动多边对话机制，避免局势进一步失控。同时，也应正视伊朗的安全关切，通过建设性接触而非一味施压来寻求长期解决方案。
Recently, several international relations experts have pointed out that amid escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities, the real concern lies not with Iran itself but with the possibility of unilateral military action by Israel. While Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence are indeed causes for concern, experts argue that Tehran’s behavior remains largely predictable and within controllable bounds. In contrast, Israel has long viewed Iran’s network of regional proxies—such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed groups in Syria—with deep hostility and has repeatedly carried out cross-border airstrikes. As diplomatic talks between Iran and Western powers stall, Israel may increasingly perceive diplomacy as ineffective and be tempted to launch preemptive strikes to eliminate what it sees as an existential threat. Such unilateral actions could trigger a broader regional conflict and undermine international efforts to de-escalate tensions. Experts therefore urge greater restraint on Israel’s part and call for reinforcing multilateral dialogue mechanisms to prevent further escalation. At the same time, they emphasize the need to address Iran’s legitimate security concerns through constructive engagement rather than solely through pressure.
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