2023年11月，美国财政部公布的国际资本流动数据显示，中国连续数月减持美国国债，而日本则继续增持，再次巩固其作为美国最大海外债权国的地位。根据数据，中国持有的美债规模降至约7750亿美元，为近14年来的低点；而日本的持仓则升至约1.1万亿美元。分析人士指出，中国减持美债可能出于多重考量：一方面，中美关系持续紧张，地缘政治风险上升，促使中国优化外汇储备结构，降低对美元资产的依赖；另一方面，人民币汇率波动和国内经济政策调整也影响了外汇储备的配置策略。此外，全球“去美元化”趋势的兴起，也促使包括中国在内的部分国家寻求多元化投资渠道。相比之下，日本增持美债则与其货币政策和日元走势密切相关。在美联储维持高利率的背景下，美债收益率相对较高，对日本投资者具有吸引力。同时，日本央行长期维持超宽松货币政策，导致日元走弱，通过持有高收益美元资产有助于稳定其外汇储备价值。总体来看，中日两国对美债的不同操作反映了各自经济战略、货币政策及国际环境判断的差异。未来，随着全球经济格局变化和主要经济体政策调整，美债持有格局或将继续演变。
In November 2023, data released by the U.S. Treasury on international capital flows showed that China continued its trend of reducing holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, while Japan increased its holdings, reaffirming its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. According to the data, China’s holdings fell to approximately $775 billion—the lowest level in nearly 14 years—while Japan’s holdings rose to about $1.1 trillion.Analysts suggest that China’s reduction in U.S. Treasuries stems from multiple factors: ongoing tensions in U.S.-China relations and heightened geopolitical risks have prompted Beijing to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets. Additionally, fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate and adjustments in domestic economic policy have influenced China’s reserve allocation strategy. The broader global trend toward “de-dollarization” has also encouraged countries like China to seek more diversified investment channels.In contrast, Japan’s increased purchases are closely tied to its monetary policy and yen dynamics. With the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively attractive to Japanese investors. Moreover, the Bank of Japan’s prolonged ultra-loose monetary stance has weakened the yen, making higher-yielding dollar assets a strategic choice to preserve the value of its foreign reserves.Overall, the divergent approaches of China and Japan reflect differing economic strategies, monetary policies, and assessments of the global environment. As the global economic landscape evolves and major economies adjust their policies, the composition of U.S. Treasury holdings is likely to continue shifting.
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