今年‘三九’不冷是不是错觉？‘三九’通常指冬至后的第19天到第27天，是一年中最寒冷的时段。然而，近年来不少地区在‘三九’期间气温偏高，让人产生‘三九不冷’的直观感受。这种现象并非错觉，而是与全球气候变化密切相关。气象数据显示，受全球变暖影响，我国冬季平均气温呈上升趋势，极端低温事件减少，暖冬频率增加。此外，大气环流异常（如厄尔尼诺现象）也会导致冷空气活动减弱，使‘三九’期间气温高于常年。例如，2023—2024年冬季，受强厄尔尼诺影响，多地出现明显偏暖天气。不过，‘三九不冷’并不意味着整个冬季都温暖。气候系统复杂多变，短期气温波动不能代表长期趋势。即便在暖冬背景下，仍可能出现阶段性寒潮。因此，公众应科学看待气温变化，既关注长期气候趋势，也做好应对极端天气的准备。总之，‘三九’不冷并非错觉，而是气候变化背景下的现实表现，提醒我们更加重视气候适应与环境保护。
Is the mild ‘Sanjiu’ period this year just an illusion?‘Sanjiu’—the third nine-day period following the winter solstice (typically days 19 to 27)—is traditionally considered the coldest time of the year in China. However, many regions have recently experienced unusually warm temperatures during this period, leading people to wonder if the saying ‘Sanjiu is the coldest’ still holds true. This perception is not an illusion but a reflection of ongoing climate change.Meteorological data shows that due to global warming, average winter temperatures in China have been rising, extreme cold events are becoming less frequent, and mild winters are occurring more often. Additionally, anomalies in atmospheric circulation—such as El Niño—can weaken cold air activity, resulting in above-average temperatures during Sanjiu. For instance, the strong El Niño event in the 2023–2024 winter contributed to significantly warmer conditions across many areas.That said, a mild Sanjiu does not guarantee a uniformly warm winter. The climate system is complex and variable; short-term temperature fluctuations do not negate long-term trends. Even in generally mild winters, sudden cold snaps can still occur. Therefore, it’s important for the public to understand temperature changes scientifically—acknowledging broader climate patterns while remaining prepared for extreme weather events.In short, the unseasonably warm Sanjiu is not a misconception but a real-world indicator of climate change, underscoring the need for greater climate resilience and environmental protection.
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