近日，知名经济学家马光远在公开演讲中表示，中国房地产市场大概率将在2026年见底。他认为，当前房地产行业正处于深度调整期，受人口结构变化、城镇化增速放缓、居民杠杆率高企以及市场信心不足等多重因素影响，短期内难以快速复苏。但随着政策持续优化、供需关系逐步改善，以及市场出清进程的推进，预计到2026年左右，行业将触底企稳。马光远指出，过去依赖高杠杆、高周转的发展模式已不可持续，未来房地产将回归居住属性，更加注重品质与长期价值。他建议地方政府因城施策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，同时加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动保障性住房建设。对于购房者而言，应理性看待市场波动，避免盲目追涨杀跌。总体来看，马光远的观点为市场提供了相对清晰的时间预期，也强调了结构性改革和长效机制建设的重要性，对理解未来中国房地产走势具有重要参考意义。
Recently, renowned economist Ma Guangyuan stated in a public speech that China’s real estate market is likely to hit bottom around 2026. He explained that the sector is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, influenced by multiple factors including demographic shifts, slowing urbanization, high household debt levels, and weak market confidence, making a quick recovery unlikely in the short term. However, with continued policy optimization, gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, and ongoing market deleveraging, the industry is expected to stabilize by around 2026.Ma emphasized that the previous high-leverage, high-turnover development model is no longer sustainable. Going forward, real estate will return to its fundamental residential function, placing greater emphasis on quality and long-term value. He recommended that local governments implement tailored policies to support genuine and improvement-driven housing demand while accelerating the construction of a new housing development model, including expanded affordable housing supply. For homebuyers, he advised rational decision-making and avoiding speculative behavior driven by market volatility.Overall, Ma’s outlook offers a relatively clear timeline for market participants and underscores the importance of structural reforms and long-term institutional mechanisms in shaping the future trajectory of China’s real estate sector.
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