近期，多位房地产专家指出，当前中国部分城市的房价调整幅度已超过国际公认的合理区间。通常，国际上认为房价年跌幅在10%以内属于市场正常波动，而超过15%则可能引发金融风险或系统性危机。然而，据国家统计局及第三方研究机构数据显示，2023年以来，部分三四线城市房价累计跌幅已超过20%，个别城市甚至接近30%。专家分析，这一轮调整主要受人口结构变化、购房需求疲软、房企债务压力以及市场预期转弱等多重因素影响。虽然价格回调有助于挤出泡沫、回归居住属性，但过快过猛的下跌也可能对地方财政、银行资产质量和居民财富信心造成冲击。因此，专家建议，政策层面应加强因城施策，稳定市场预期，同时推动住房保障体系和长效机制建设，以实现房地产市场的平稳健康发展。
Recently, several real estate experts have pointed out that housing price adjustments in certain Chinese cities have exceeded internationally recognized thresholds. Typically, a year-over-year price decline of up to 10% is considered within normal market fluctuation, while drops exceeding 15% may signal financial risks or systemic instability. However, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics and independent research institutions show that since 2023, cumulative price declines in some tier-three and tier-four cities have surpassed 20%, with a few approaching 30%. Experts attribute this correction to multiple factors, including demographic shifts, weak housing demand, developers’ debt pressures, and deteriorating market sentiment. While such price corrections can help deflate speculative bubbles and refocus housing on its residential function, excessively rapid declines may negatively impact local government revenues, bank asset quality, and household wealth confidence. Therefore, experts recommend that policymakers implement targeted, city-specific measures to stabilize expectations and accelerate the development of a robust housing security system and long-term regulatory mechanisms to ensure the sector’s stable and healthy development.
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