世界银行近日发布最新《全球经济展望》报告，预测2026年全球经济增长率将稳定在2.6%。这一预测反映出全球经济在经历疫情冲击、地缘政治紧张和通胀压力后逐步进入温和复苏阶段。报告指出，尽管部分发达经济体增长动能减弱，但新兴市场和发展中经济体有望成为推动全球增长的主要力量。其中，亚洲地区特别是南亚和东南亚国家，因结构性改革、人口红利和制造业回流等因素，预计将保持相对强劲的增长势头。然而，世界银行也警示了多重下行风险，包括持续的高利率环境、债务负担加重、气候变化加剧以及全球供应链重构带来的不确定性。此外，技术变革和人工智能的快速发展虽带来效率提升，但也可能加剧劳动力市场的结构性失衡。因此，报告呼吁各国加强政策协调，推动包容性增长，并加大对教育、基础设施和绿色转型的投资，以增强经济韧性并实现可持续发展目标。
The World Bank recently released its latest Global Economic Prospects report, forecasting that global economic growth will stabilize at 2.6% in 2026. This projection reflects a gradual transition toward moderate recovery following the shocks of the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures. The report notes that while growth momentum is weakening in some advanced economies, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to become the primary drivers of global expansion. In particular, South and Southeast Asia are projected to maintain relatively robust growth, supported by structural reforms, demographic dividends, and the reshoring of manufacturing.However, the World Bank also highlights multiple downside risks, including persistently high interest rates, rising debt burdens, intensifying climate change impacts, and uncertainties stemming from the restructuring of global supply chains. Moreover, while rapid advancements in technology and artificial intelligence may boost productivity, they could also exacerbate structural imbalances in labor markets. The report therefore urges countries to enhance policy coordination, promote inclusive growth, and increase investments in education, infrastructure, and green transitions to strengthen economic resilience and achieve sustainable development goals.
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