近期，多位经济学家指出，中国房地产市场正逐步显现企稳迹象，其背后逻辑主要体现在政策支持、需求释放与市场预期改善三方面。首先，自2023年以来，中央及地方政府密集出台一系列稳楼市政策，包括降低首付比例、优化限购措施、提供购房补贴以及推动‘保交楼’专项借款落地，有效缓解了房企流动性压力并提振购房者信心。其次，随着经济复苏节奏加快，居民收入预期趋于稳定，部分刚性和改善性住房需求开始释放，尤其在核心城市表现明显。此外，市场情绪也出现积极变化，房价下跌预期减弱，二手房成交量在多个重点城市环比上升，表明市场信心正在修复。经济学家普遍认为，尽管行业整体仍处于调整阶段，但政策托底效应叠加基本面边际改善，已为房地产市场筑起阶段性底部，未来将呈现温和复苏态势。
Recently, several economists have noted that China’s real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, driven primarily by three factors: policy support, demand release, and improved market expectations. First, since 2023, both central and local governments have rolled out a series of measures to stabilize the property sector—such as lowering down payment requirements, easing purchase restrictions, offering homebuyer subsidies, and implementing special loans to ensure project completion (‘Bao Jiao Lou’). These actions have alleviated liquidity pressures on developers and boosted buyer confidence. Second, as the broader economy recovers, household income expectations are stabilizing, prompting the release of pent-up demand, particularly for primary and upgrade housing in major cities. Additionally, market sentiment has turned more positive, with declining price expectations weakening and month-over-month increases in secondhand home transaction volumes observed in several key cities—indicating a gradual restoration of confidence. Economists generally agree that while the sector remains in an adjustment phase, the combined effects of policy support and marginal improvements in fundamentals have established a short-to-medium-term floor, paving the way for a mild recovery.
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