近日，著名经济学家李稻葵在公开演讲中指出，2026年将是中国房地产市场迎来首波实质性利好的关键节点。他认为，随着人口结构、城镇化进程和政策调控的多重因素趋于稳定，政府有望在2026年前后推出系统性支持措施，包括优化限购政策、降低房贷利率、推动保障性住房建设等，以激活市场信心、稳定房价预期。李稻葵强调，这一轮利好并非短期刺激，而是基于长期结构性调整的成果，旨在实现房地产市场的软着陆与高质量发展。他同时提醒，不同城市分化仍将明显，一线和核心二线城市受益更显著，而部分三四线城市仍需谨慎应对库存压力。总体来看，2026年或将成为楼市从深度调整迈向复苏的重要转折点。
Recently, renowned economist Li Daokui stated in a public speech that 2026 will be a pivotal year when China’s real estate market experiences its first wave of substantial policy support. He argued that as demographic trends, urbanization progress, and regulatory policies stabilize, the government is likely to introduce systematic measures around 2026—such as easing home purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates, and accelerating affordable housing development—to restore market confidence and stabilize price expectations. Li emphasized that this round of supportive policies is not short-term stimulus but rather the outcome of long-term structural adjustments aimed at achieving a soft landing and high-quality development for the property sector. He also cautioned that regional disparities will persist, with first-tier and core second-tier cities benefiting more significantly, while some third- and fourth-tier cities must remain vigilant about inventory overhangs. Overall, 2026 could mark a crucial turning point as the market transitions from deep correction toward recovery.
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