近期，市场对美联储在2024年降息的预期显著降温。这一变化主要源于美国通胀数据持续高于预期，以及劳动力市场保持强劲，使得美联储官员多次强调‘更高更久’（higher for longer）的利率立场。此前，投资者普遍预计美联储将在2024年上半年启动降息周期，但随着核心PCE物价指数等关键通胀指标回落缓慢，市场开始重新评估政策路径。根据CME集团的FedWatch工具显示，目前交易员对2024年首次降息时点的预期已从3月推迟至6月甚至更晚，全年降息幅度的预期也从最初的100个基点下调至约50个基点。这种预期调整不仅影响了美股走势，也导致美债收益率维持高位、美元走强。总体来看，市场正逐步接受美联储将维持高利率更长时间的现实，降息不再是‘板上钉钉’，而需更多经济数据支持，尤其是通胀能否持续向2%目标靠拢。
Recently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2024 have significantly cooled. This shift is primarily driven by persistently higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data and a resilient labor market, prompting Fed officials to repeatedly emphasize a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate stance. Earlier, investors widely anticipated that the Fed would begin cutting rates in the first half of 2024. However, with key inflation indicators—such as the core PCE price index—declining more slowly than expected, markets are reassessing the likely policy path. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now expect the first rate cut in June or even later, compared to earlier bets on a March move. Moreover, the projected total magnitude of rate cuts for 2024 has been revised down from an initial expectation of 100 basis points to around 50 basis points. This recalibration has influenced U.S. equity markets, kept Treasury yields elevated, and supported a stronger dollar. Overall, markets are gradually adjusting to the reality that the Fed may keep rates high for an extended period, and rate cuts are no longer a certainty—they will depend heavily on incoming economic data, particularly whether inflation continues to sustainably approach the Fed’s 2% target.
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