近期，中信证券发布研报表示，持续看好铝板块的后市行情。报告指出，受益于全球能源结构转型加速、新能源汽车及光伏等下游需求快速增长，铝作为轻量化和可再生金属的战略地位日益凸显。同时，国内电解铝产能受“双碳”政策约束，供给增长受限，而海外部分产能因能源成本高企面临减产压力，整体供应端趋紧。此外，库存处于历史低位，进一步支撑铝价上行。中信证券认为，在供需格局持续改善、成本支撑增强以及宏观流动性预期向好的背景下，铝板块具备较强的投资价值，建议关注具备低成本优势、绿色转型领先及一体化布局完善的龙头企业。展望未来，随着全球经济复苏与绿色产业扩张，铝的需求有望保持稳健增长，行业盈利能力和估值水平或同步提升，为投资者带来中长期配置机会。
Recently, CITIC Securities released a research report expressing continued optimism about the outlook for the aluminum sector. The report highlights that aluminum’s strategic importance as a lightweight and recyclable metal is growing, driven by the accelerated global energy transition and surging downstream demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained by China’s ‘dual carbon’ policy, limiting supply growth, while overseas producers face output cuts due to high energy costs, tightening the global supply. Additionally, historically low inventory levels provide further support for higher aluminum prices. CITIC Securities believes that, given improving supply-demand dynamics, stronger cost-based price support, and favorable macro liquidity expectations, the aluminum sector offers compelling investment value. The firm recommends focusing on industry leaders with low-cost advantages, advanced green transformation initiatives, and integrated business models.Looking ahead, robust global economic recovery and expansion in green industries are expected to sustain steady growth in aluminum demand, potentially boosting both profitability and valuations—creating attractive medium- to long-term investment opportunities.
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