高盛近日发布研究报告指出，预计到2026年美国通胀将趋于温和。该投行认为，随着劳动力市场逐步降温、供应链压力缓解以及美联储持续的货币政策调控，核心通胀率有望在中期内回落至接近2%的目标水平。高盛强调，尽管短期内通胀仍可能受到能源价格波动和地缘政治风险的影响，但整体趋势将呈现下行。此外，消费者支出增长放缓和住房成本增速减缓也被视为推动通胀降温的关键因素。报告还提到，若经济实现“软着陆”——即在不引发严重衰退的情况下控制通胀——将为美联储提供更大的政策灵活性，甚至可能在2025年下半年开始降息。总体而言，高盛对美国中期通胀前景持相对乐观态度，认为当前高通胀阶段已接近尾声。这一预测对投资者具有重要参考价值，意味着未来几年金融市场可能迎来更稳定的宏观环境，有利于风险资产表现。不过，高盛也提醒需警惕潜在上行风险，如工资-物价螺旋上升或财政赤字扩大等。
Goldman Sachs recently released a research report indicating that U.S. inflation is expected to moderate by 2026. The investment bank believes that as the labor market gradually cools, supply chain pressures ease, and the Federal Reserve continues its monetary policy adjustments, core inflation is likely to return toward the Fed’s 2% target over the medium term. While acknowledging that short-term inflation could still be affected by energy price volatility and geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the overall trend is downward. Slowing consumer spending and decelerating housing costs are also cited as key drivers of disinflation. The report further notes that if the economy achieves a ‘soft landing’—curbing inflation without triggering a severe recession—it would grant the Fed greater policy flexibility, potentially allowing rate cuts as early as the second half of 2025. Overall, Goldman Sachs holds a relatively optimistic view on the medium-term inflation outlook, suggesting the current high-inflation phase is nearing its end.This forecast offers valuable guidance for investors, implying a more stable macroeconomic environment in the coming years that could support risk assets. However, Goldman Sachs also cautions about potential upside risks, such as a wage-price spiral or widening fiscal deficits.
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