近期，市场普遍预期美联储即将开启降息周期，认为降息几无悬念。这一判断主要基于多项关键经济数据的走弱以及通胀压力的持续缓解。美国消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI）连续数月回落，核心通胀指标也趋于温和，为美联储转向宽松政策提供了空间。此外，劳动力市场虽仍具韧性，但新增就业岗位和薪资增速已出现放缓迹象，进一步强化了市场对政策转向的预期。与此同时，金融市场已提前定价多次降息。联邦基金利率期货显示，投资者普遍预计美联储最早将在2024年年中开始降息，并可能在全年实施两到三次25个基点的下调。这种高度一致的预期也反映在美债收益率曲线的形态上——长端利率下行，短端利率相对稳定，预示着经济前景趋于谨慎。不过，美联储官员仍强调政策将‘依赖数据’，若未来通胀反弹或就业市场意外走强，降息节奏可能推迟。尽管如此，当前宏观环境和市场情绪已形成强烈共识：美联储的紧缩周期大概率已经结束，降息只是时间问题。
Recently, financial markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates soon, viewing such a move as almost certain. This consensus is primarily driven by weakening economic data and sustained easing of inflationary pressures. Both the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have declined for several consecutive months, and core inflation metrics have moderated, giving the Fed room to pivot toward a more accommodative stance. Additionally, while the labor market remains resilient, signs of slowing job growth and wage increases further reinforce expectations of a policy shift.Financial markets have already priced in multiple rate cuts. Federal funds futures indicate that investors broadly anticipate the Fed will start lowering rates as early as mid-2024, potentially implementing two to three 25-basis-point cuts throughout the year. This strong consensus is also reflected in the shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve—long-end yields are falling while short-end rates remain relatively stable, signaling cautious economic outlook.Nevertheless, Fed officials continue to stress that policy decisions will remain ‘data-dependent.’ Should inflation rebound or the labor market unexpectedly strengthen, the timing of rate cuts could be delayed. Despite this caveat, the prevailing macroeconomic environment and market sentiment have coalesced around a clear view: the Fed’s tightening cycle is likely over, and rate cuts are now a matter of when, not if.
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