近期，多位基金经理公开发声，认为A股市场‘春季躁动’行情已经启动。所谓‘春季躁动’，通常指每年年初至两会前后，受政策预期、流动性宽松及风险偏好回升等因素推动，市场出现阶段性上涨的现象。今年，在稳增长政策持续发力、美联储加息周期接近尾声、国内经济数据边际改善等多重利好支撑下，市场情绪明显回暖。基金经理指出，当前市场估值仍处于历史低位，具备较强的安全边际，叠加春节前后资金面相对宽松，为行情提供了良好土壤。从结构上看，科技成长、消费复苏以及高股息板块成为近期资金关注的重点。部分基金经理建议投资者可逢低布局优质资产，把握结构性机会，同时保持适度仓位以应对潜在波动。值得注意的是，尽管‘春季躁动’具有一定的季节性规律，但其持续性和强度仍受宏观经济走势、政策落地节奏及外部环境变化影响。因此，专家提醒投资者应理性看待短期反弹，避免追高，注重长期价值投资。
Recently, several fund managers have publicly stated that the ‘Spring Rally’ in China’s A-share market has already begun. The so-called ‘Spring Rally’ typically refers to a seasonal market uptrend occurring from early January through the period around China’s annual Two Sessions (National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), driven by factors such as positive policy expectations, accommodative liquidity, and rising risk appetite. This year, supportive conditions—including ongoing pro-growth policies, the nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, and marginal improvements in domestic economic data—have significantly boosted market sentiment.Fund managers note that current market valuations remain at historically low levels, offering a solid margin of safety. Coupled with relatively loose liquidity conditions around the Lunar New Year, the environment is conducive to a rally. Sector-wise, technology growth stocks, consumer recovery plays, and high-dividend assets have attracted notable investor interest. Some managers recommend investors selectively accumulate high-quality assets on market dips to capture structural opportunities while maintaining moderate positions to manage potential volatility.However, while the Spring Rally follows a recognizable seasonal pattern, its duration and strength still depend heavily on macroeconomic trends, the pace of policy implementation, and external developments. Experts therefore caution investors to approach short-term rebounds rationally, avoid chasing highs, and stay focused on long-term value investing.
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