随着中国外卖市场趋于成熟，2026年是否还会爆发新一轮“外卖大战”成为业界关注焦点。过去十年，以外卖平台为代表的本地生活服务经历了激烈竞争，美团与饿了么通过补贴、地推和流量争夺迅速扩张。如今，市场格局基本稳定，头部平台占据绝大多数份额，用户增长放缓，行业重心已从“抢用户”转向“提效率”和“拓场景”。然而，2026年仍可能出现局部竞争或新变量。一方面，抖音、快手等短视频平台正加速切入本地生活赛道，凭借内容种草与即时配送能力，对传统外卖平台构成潜在威胁；另一方面，AI技术、无人配送、绿色包装等创新可能重塑服务模式，引发新一轮差异化竞争。此外，政策监管趋严、骑手权益保障及可持续发展议题也将影响行业走向。总体来看，2026年不太可能出现如2015–2018年那样大规模烧钱补贴的“外卖大战”，但围绕用户体验、履约效率与生态协同的精细化竞争将持续升级。未来的战场不在街头巷尾的补贴战，而在技术、服务与社会责任的综合较量。
As China’s food delivery market matures, whether a new round of ‘delivery wars’ will erupt by 2026 has become a key industry question. Over the past decade, local lifestyle services—led by food delivery platforms—saw fierce competition, with Meituan and Ele.me rapidly expanding through subsidies, on-the-ground promotions, and traffic battles. Today, the market structure has largely stabilized, with dominant players holding the vast majority of market share, user growth slowing, and the industry’s focus shifting from ‘acquiring users’ to ‘improving efficiency’ and ‘expanding service scenarios.’However, localized competition or new variables could still emerge by 2026. Short-video platforms like Douyin (TikTok) and Kuaishou are aggressively entering the local services space, leveraging content-driven discovery and instant delivery capabilities to pose a potential threat to traditional delivery platforms. Additionally, innovations such as AI, autonomous delivery, and eco-friendly packaging may reshape service models and trigger a new wave of differentiated competition. Stricter regulations, rider welfare concerns, and sustainability issues will also shape the industry’s trajectory.Overall, a large-scale, subsidy-driven ‘delivery war’ akin to those seen between 2015 and 2018 is unlikely in 2026. Instead, competition will increasingly center on user experience, fulfillment efficiency, and ecosystem synergy—marking a shift from street-level price wars to a comprehensive battle over technology, service quality, and social responsibility.
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