近日，英国知名投行巴克莱（Barclays）宣布推迟其对美联储降息时间的预测。此前，该行曾预计美联储将在2024年6月启动本轮降息周期，但最新分析显示，由于美国通胀数据持续高于预期、劳动力市场保持强劲，以及美联储官员表态偏鹰派，降息时点可能延后至9月甚至更晚。巴克莱指出，尽管市场普遍期待美联储在上半年采取宽松政策以应对经济增长放缓的风险，但近期公布的CPI和PCE等核心通胀指标仍具粘性，令决策者难以在短期内转向降息。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调“需要更多信心确认通胀正持续向2%目标回落”，这进一步强化了政策制定者的谨慎立场。这一调整反映出当前货币政策路径的高度不确定性。投资者需密切关注即将公布的非农就业报告、消费者支出数据及美联储会议纪要，以判断未来利率走向。巴克莱同时提醒，若通胀压力在夏季显著缓解，美联储仍有可能在年底前实施1-2次降息，但节奏将比此前预期更为缓慢。总体而言，巴克莱的预测调整凸显了在全球经济波动加剧背景下，央行在稳增长与控通胀之间的艰难平衡。
Recently, the British investment bank Barclays announced a delay in its forecast for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Previously, the bank had projected that the Fed would initiate its rate-cutting cycle in June 2024. However, new analysis suggests the timing could be pushed back to September or even later, due to persistently higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, a resilient labor market, and hawkish signals from Fed officials.Barclays noted that although markets widely anticipated the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance in the first half of 2024 amid concerns over slowing economic growth, recent core inflation indicators—such as CPI and PCE—remain stubbornly elevated, making it difficult for policymakers to pivot toward easing soon. Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed the need for ‘greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target,’ reinforcing the central bank’s cautious approach.This revision highlights the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy path ahead. Investors should closely monitor upcoming releases—including nonfarm payrolls, consumer spending data, and Fed meeting minutes—to gauge future interest rate movements. Barclays also cautioned that if inflationary pressures ease significantly over the summer, the Fed could still deliver one or two rate cuts by year-end—but at a slower pace than previously expected.Overall, Barclays’ updated forecast underscores the delicate balancing act central banks face between supporting growth and controlling inflation amid heightened global economic volatility.
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