标普全球（S&P Global）最新研究报告指出，到2040年，全球铜需求预计将增长约50%，主要受能源转型和电气化趋势推动。随着各国加速推进可再生能源、电动汽车、电网基础设施以及储能系统的发展，对铜这一关键导电金属的需求将持续攀升。报告强调，仅电动汽车一项，其铜用量就远高于传统燃油车——每辆电动车平均使用约80公斤铜，是内燃机汽车的3至4倍。此外，风能和太阳能发电项目、高压输电线路以及数据中心等新兴领域也大幅提升了铜的消耗量。然而，铜矿供应增长相对滞后，新矿开发周期长、投资大且面临环境与社会许可挑战，可能导致未来出现供需缺口。标普警告，若不加快上游投资和回收体系建设，铜价波动或加剧，并影响全球脱碳进程。该预测凸显了铜在实现净零排放目标中的战略地位，也提醒政策制定者和产业界需提前布局资源保障与循环经济措施。
According to a recent report by S&P Global, global copper demand is projected to increase by approximately 50% by 2040, primarily driven by the energy transition and electrification trends. As countries accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), power grid infrastructure, and energy storage systems, demand for copper—a critical conductive metal—will continue to rise sharply. The report highlights that EVs alone consume significantly more copper than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, with each electric car using an average of about 80 kilograms—three to four times more.Moreover, wind and solar power projects, high-voltage transmission lines, and data centers are also substantially increasing copper consumption. However, copper supply growth lags behind demand due to long lead times, high capital requirements, and environmental and social permitting challenges associated with new mining projects. S&P warns that without accelerated upstream investment and enhanced recycling systems, supply shortages could emerge, leading to greater price volatility and potentially hampering global decarbonization efforts.This forecast underscores copper’s strategic role in achieving net-zero emissions and urges policymakers and industry stakeholders to proactively secure resources and develop circular economy solutions.
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