2024年6月18日，沪镍期货主力合约日内涨幅一度超过4%，引发市场广泛关注。此次上涨主要受到多重因素推动：一方面，全球镍供应端持续紧张，印尼等主要产镍国出口政策趋严，叠加部分矿山因环保或天气原因减产，导致市场对镍资源短缺的预期升温；另一方面，国内新能源汽车产业链需求保持强劲，三元电池对高镍材料的需求稳步增长，进一步支撑镍价上行。此外，近期美元走弱也对以美元计价的大宗商品形成利好，间接提振沪镍价格。技术面上，沪镍主力合约突破关键阻力位，吸引短线资金入场追涨，加剧了日内波动。不过，分析人士提醒，当前镍市仍面临库存回升、不锈钢消费疲软等压力，短期大幅上涨后需警惕回调风险。投资者应密切关注宏观政策动向、供需变化及外盘走势，理性参与交易。
On June 18, 2024, the front-month nickel futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) surged by more than 4% during intraday trading, drawing significant market attention. The rally was driven by multiple factors: on the supply side, global nickel availability remains tight, with major producers like Indonesia tightening export policies and some mines cutting output due to environmental regulations or adverse weather, fueling concerns over potential shortages. On the demand side, China’s new energy vehicle sector continues to show robust growth, driving steady demand for high-nickel cathode materials used in ternary batteries. Additionally, a recent weakening of the U.S. dollar has provided support for dollar-denominated commodities, indirectly boosting SHFE nickel prices. Technically, the contract broke through key resistance levels, attracting short-term speculative capital and amplifying intraday volatility. However, analysts caution that the nickel market still faces headwinds, including rising inventories and sluggish stainless steel demand. After such a sharp rise, a pullback is possible, and investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic policies, supply-demand dynamics, and overseas market trends before making trading decisions.
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