近日，知名策略师洪灏在其最新市场展望中预测，2026年美股将呈现“先涨后跌”的走势。他认为，在2025年至2026年初，受企业盈利改善、美联储可能降息以及市场情绪回暖等因素推动，美股有望延续上涨趋势。然而，随着经济周期进入后期阶段，通胀压力可能再度抬头，叠加高估值风险和地缘政治不确定性，市场或在2026年下半年面临显著回调压力。洪灏指出，当前美股估值已处于历史高位，尤其是科技股的集中度较高，一旦流动性收紧或盈利不及预期，极易引发市场波动。他建议投资者在享受前期上涨红利的同时，应提前布局防御性资产，并关注宏观政策转向信号。此外，他还强调全球资本流动格局的变化——包括美元地位的潜在动摇和新兴市场的吸引力上升——也可能对美股构成结构性挑战。总体而言，洪灏的观点提醒市场参与者：在乐观情绪中保持谨慎，是应对未来不确定性的关键。
Recently, renowned strategist Hong Hao predicted in his latest market outlook that U.S. equities will experience a ‘rise-then-fall’ trajectory in 2026. He believes that from 2025 through early 2026, the U.S. stock market is likely to continue its upward trend, supported by improving corporate earnings, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and recovering investor sentiment. However, as the economic cycle matures, renewed inflationary pressures—combined with elevated valuations and geopolitical uncertainties—could trigger a significant market correction in the second half of 2026.Hong Hao notes that current U.S. equity valuations are already at historically high levels, particularly in the tech sector, where concentration risk is pronounced. Any tightening of liquidity or earnings disappointment could easily spark volatility. He advises investors to enjoy the upside in the near term while proactively allocating to defensive assets and closely monitoring signals of macro policy shifts. Additionally, he highlights evolving global capital flows—including potential challenges to the U.S. dollar’s dominance and rising appeal of emerging markets—as structural headwinds for U.S. equities.Overall, Hong Hao’s outlook serves as a reminder: maintaining caution amid optimism is crucial for navigating future market uncertainty.
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