近期，多家市场研究机构发布报告指出，受供需关系紧张及上游原材料成本上升等因素影响，2024年第一季度内存（DRAM）价格可能继续大幅上涨，涨幅最高或达50%。这一预测主要基于当前存储芯片制造商产能调整、AI服务器需求激增以及消费电子市场逐步回暖等多重因素。首先，全球三大DRAM厂商——三星、SK海力士和美光——在过去一年中持续控制产能扩张节奏，以应对此前的价格下行周期。随着库存逐步消化完毕，厂商开始转向提价策略以改善盈利状况。其次，人工智能技术的快速发展带动了高性能计算和数据中心建设，对高带宽内存（如HBM）的需求显著增长，进一步推高整体DRAM市场价格。此外，智能手机、PC等终端设备在2023年下半年销量企稳回升，也增加了对标准DRAM的采购需求。业内分析人士提醒，尽管价格上涨预期强烈，但若全球经济复苏不及预期或AI投资热度降温，实际涨幅可能低于预测。不过，短期内内存价格维持上行趋势已成共识，相关产业链企业或将迎来新一轮业绩改善窗口期。
Recently, several market research firms have reported that DRAM prices could surge by as much as 50% in the first quarter of 2024, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics and rising upstream material costs. This forecast stems from multiple factors, including production adjustments by memory chipmakers, surging demand from AI servers, and a gradual recovery in the consumer electronics market.Firstly, the world’s top three DRAM manufacturers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—have deliberately restrained capacity expansion over the past year to navigate a previous price downturn. With inventories now largely depleted, these companies are shifting toward price hikes to bolster profitability. Secondly, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence have fueled demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in data centers and high-performance computing, further tightening the overall DRAM supply. Additionally, stabilizing and recovering sales of smartphones and PCs in the second half of 2023 have increased procurement of standard DRAM modules.Analysts caution that while strong price increases are widely anticipated, actual gains could fall short if global economic recovery falters or AI-related investments cool down. Nevertheless, a near-term upward trend in memory pricing is broadly expected, potentially opening a new window of improved earnings for companies across the memory supply chain.
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