近日，国际知名投行摩根士丹利（大摩）发布最新研究报告，大幅上调对黄金价格的预期，预测2024年金价有望冲击每盎司4800美元的历史新高。这一看多观点主要基于多重宏观因素：首先，全球地缘政治风险持续升温，包括中东局势紧张、俄乌冲突延宕等，推动避险资金涌入黄金市场；其次，美联储货币政策转向预期增强，市场普遍预计年内将开启降息周期，实际利率下行有利于无息资产黄金的表现；此外，各国央行持续增持黄金储备，尤其是新兴市场国家去美元化趋势加速，进一步支撑金价长期走强。大摩指出，若通胀出现反复或金融系统再度承压，金价上行空间可能更大。不过，投资者也需警惕短期波动风险，如美元阶段性走强或市场情绪突变可能带来回调压力。总体而言，大摩认为黄金在当前宏观环境下具备强劲的上涨动能，4800美元的目标虽激进，但并非遥不可及。
Recently, global investment bank Morgan Stanley (often referred to as ‘Da Mo’ in Chinese financial circles) released a new research report significantly revising its gold price forecast upward, predicting that gold could surge to a record high of $4,800 per ounce in 2024. This bullish outlook is driven by several macroeconomic factors: first, escalating geopolitical tensions—such as instability in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict—are fueling safe-haven demand for gold; second, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle later this year are likely to push real interest rates lower, which historically benefits non-yielding assets like gold; additionally, central banks worldwide, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase their gold reserves amid accelerating de-dollarization trends, providing long-term support for prices. Morgan Stanley notes that if inflation proves stickier than expected or if financial system stress reemerges, gold’s upside potential could be even greater. However, investors should remain cautious about short-term volatility, such as temporary U.S. dollar strength or sudden shifts in market sentiment, which could trigger pullbacks. Overall, Morgan Stanley believes gold possesses strong upward momentum under the current macro backdrop, and while the $4,800 target is ambitious, it is not implausible.
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